The National Development Council (NDC), the top economic planning agency in Taiwan, on Tuesday set a goal of 4.56 percent for gross domestic product growth in 2026.
Speaking at a news conference, NDC head Yeh Chun-hsien (葉俊顯) said there are two major drivers for GDP growth in 2026. The first is the United States' verbal agreement to cut tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20 percent to 15 percent.
The second is the move by global cloud service providers to continue to raise capital expenditure to benefit from Taiwanese AI-related exporters during the current AI boom.
In November, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) raised its forecast for growth in 2026 from the previous estimate of 2.81 percent made in August to 3.54 percent.
The DGBAS is scheduled to release its GDP growth update on Feb. 13, while several economic institutions at home and abroad have raised their forecasts above 4 percent, including the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), which has forecast growth of 4.14 percent in 2026.
Yeh said the NDC already has a Taiwan GDP growth baseline of 4.11 percent for 2026 after taking into account Taiwan's exports and investment growth on the back of capex increases by global cloud service providers, while assessing global economic growth and international crude price fluctuations.
There is little doubt that Taiwan's economy will grow more than 4 percent this year, he said, adding that the NDC will continue to push up private consumption, public investment, private investment and net exports to increase growth momentum by an additional 0.45 percentage points to 4.56 percent in 2026.
The NDC head said government spending will include an increase in defense spending and military industry investments, while private investment will cover innovative AI projects, urban renewal plans and the transformation of Taiwan into an asset management hub in Asia.
Yeh said the government will also aim to build a "non-Red" supply chain, meaning reduced dependence on China, and strengthen Taiwan's export momentum under the Special Statute on Strengthening the Resilience of the Economy, Society, and National Security in Response to International Developments.
Meanwhile, Yeh said Taiwan's GDP per capita is expected to pass US$40,000 in 2026 provided the local economy grows at a pace of 2 percent.
With GDP growth expected to top 4 percent this year, the NDC has forecast Taiwan's GDP per capita will range from US$41,708 to US$43,897, above the DGBAS's forecast of US$40,951.
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